Using Major Uncertainties to Stress Test Strategy

The present we are living through can feel extremely turbulent.  For many, “the future” feels far more uncertain than it might have even two years ago.  In this kind of environment, it can be difficult to feel confident that your organization has effectively prepared itself for the wide range of emerging risks (and opportunities) it could face.

In these situations, we of course want greater foresight.   One important way* to apply foresight in these situations is to use it to stress test strategy.

One interesting and quick way to stress test your current plans is to develop a set of scenario forecasts built specifically around the major uncertainties in the operating environment.  If the intent is to truly test your strategy against a challenging range of logical possibilities, and if your team does not already have a shortlist of troubling strategic uncertainties, then we would suggest the following:

1. The future of the geopolitical landscape

2. The future of American political stability

3. The future of AI

While there are a great many forces driving change in the world today and thus a great many uncertainties, each of these three represent major potential inflection points for organizations in the US.  And a great many industry-specific uncertainties will be shaped by how these three issues play out in the years ahead.

What should you do?  Focus on developing a set of four scenarios, each built with different combinations of possibilities for these three key strategic issues.

For example (and just for illustration), if we use the 4 Steps to the Future process, we could imagine developing four 10-year scenarios like:

• A. The World Snaps Back: Despite repeated geopolitical crises, polarized US elections, and recurring AI hype cycles, things like institutional inertia, regulatory friction, and basic economic incentives prevent any fundamental changes.

• B. Managed Draft: Geopolitical competition hardens into a more fragmented but predictable multipolar order, American democracy remains tense yet functional, and AI steadily embeds itself into everyday life, producing noticeable but manageable shifts rather than disruptive upheaval.

• C. The Slow Unraveling: Over time, sustained geopolitical rivalry, increasing US political instability, and the uneven diffusion of powerful AI systems interact to reshape institutions, labor markets, and alliances in deeply disruptive ways.

• D. The Shock that Rewrites the Rules: The confluence of a rapid geopolitical escalation, a US constitutional crisis, and a sudden leap in autonomous AI capability triggers a swift realignment of global power, domestic authority, and human–machine relationships, permanently altering the trajectory of America and the world.

These four scenarios are just an example – your team can and should develop your own.  The point is to take these three key uncertainties and consider how the three of them could turn out all within the same future.

How would your industry change in each scenario?  How then would your current strategy fair in each of those scenarios?

By first considering how each of those big uncertainties could reshape the world, you can better consider the deep impacts on your industry, and ultimately how well your current plans would perform in these very different futures.

As always, contact us today to discuss how we can help your leadership team with developing foresight and its strategic conversation.

*As we have discussed before, leadership teams typically use foresight in one of four applications.  These include:

• Stress test/craft strategy

• Visioning

• Monitoring

• Contingency planning