Anticipating the Risks of Competitive Authoritarianism

Considering the Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism

As events in US politics continue to drive intense debate and disagreement, concerns about increasing authoritarianism are rising.  Now, according to the latest Bright Line Watch report, hundreds of political scientists now warn that the US is moving rapidly from liberal democracy toward a form of “competitive authoritarianism”, marked by what they identify as declining institutional checks and growing executive overreach.

These concerns closely mirror one of our recent internal forecasts of American political futures, one of which was “Authoritarian Consolidation.”  In that possibility, the Republican party (in its current configuration) entrenches its power through institutional control and systematic erosion of democratic guardrails, exactly what many others are debating today.  This possibility underscores the need for organizations to proactively monitor political weak (and not-so-weak) signals and prepare for a landscape where formal democratic structures coexist with substantively authoritarian practices.

What Risks for Organizations?

A more authoritarian federal government would pose both near-term and long-term risks for organizations as it would undermine the predictability, transparency, and fairness of the business environment.

Short-Term (1-2 years): Potential near-term disruptions and volatility.

·         Increased regulatory uncertainty and executive branch overreach

·         Loss of institutional trust and reliability of government data

·         Constraints on media and free speech

·         Damage to employee morale and engagement

Mid-Term (3-5 years): Structural shifts to anticipate beyond the next couple of years.

·         Enduring challenges with recruitment

·         New legal and contractual vulnerabilities (episodic)

·         Much greater polarization of consumer and stakeholder sentiments

·         State politics mirroring federal patterns

Long-Term (6+ years): Deeper, potentially existential risks over the long-term.

·         Decline of the economy, market contraction

·         Erosion of the rule of law and property rights

·         international isolation; impact of trade barriers

Taking Action Today

Leaders can take steps today to begin addressing these risks:

• Conduct your own “scenario mapping” to explore America’s alternate political futures.

• Formally monitor the political and social trends identified in your scenario mapping.

• Strengthen your internal governance and compliance systems to prepare for greater regulatory uncertainty.

• And if you’re really motivated on political futures: Engage with civil society and advocacy groups to support democratic – i.e. our civic, not partisan – norms.

Next Steps

Contact us to discuss how services such as our foresight workshops and strategic advisory services can help you and your team dig deeper into these issues to map your organization’s emerging risks and opportunities.