Strategic Reset: Why Scenario Forecasting Belongs in Every Executive Toolkit

In times of uncertainty, strategic clarity is not found in prediction—it’s built through preparation. Scenario forecasting offers a powerful way for leaders to reset their strategic thinking, especially when navigating complex, high-stakes issues. This month, we’re spotlighting a fresh example from Alaska’s energy landscape to illustrate how scenario tools help organizations anticipate change, stress-test decisions, and build resilience.

We began with two critical and uncertain dimensions shaping Alaska’s future: the trajectory of oil and gas production, and the viability of the Alaska LNG export project. These axes are not just important—they’re actively in flux. Oil production is poised for a short-term rebound, while the LNG project has federal support but faces financial and geopolitical hurdles. By crossing these axes, we created four plausible scenarios that illuminate how Alaska’s energy economy might evolve over the next five years—not by assuming resolution of these uncertainties, but by exploring how progress may or may not unfold.

Each scenario reveals distinct implications for policy, investment, and community well-being. For example, in a “Boom & Bridge” scenario, rising oil output and LNG development could stabilize state revenues and delay tax reform. In contrast, an “Energy Cliff” scenario—where both oil and LNG falter—could accelerate outmigration, deepen fiscal strain, and force urgent shifts toward renewable energy and new taxation models. These aren’t predictions; they’re logical forecasts intended to help leaders ask better questions and prepare for multiple futures.

Scenario forecasting is especially valuable during strategic resets. It helps executives:

• Clarify assumptions that may no longer hold.

• Identify early signals of change across markets, policy, and demographics.

• Engage stakeholders with narratives that make uncertainty actionable.

• Design flexible strategies that perform well across multiple futures.

  
  

To get started, here are three low-risk, high-value steps any executive team can take:

1. Choose two critical uncertainties in your domain and sketch a 2x2 matrix—don’t worry about perfection, focus on relevance.

2. Draft short scenario narratives for each quadrant, exploring implications for your organization, customers, and partners.

3. Use the scenarios to stress-test one current strategy or investment, asking: What holds up? What breaks? What needs rethinking?

   
   

In a world where volatility is the new normal, scenario forecasting isn’t just a planning tool—it’s a leadership discipline. As Alaska’s energy future shows, the path ahead may be shaped as much by what doesn’t happen as by what does. The organizations that thrive will be those that prepare for both.

Contact us today to discuss how VFS can help your leadership team develop new scenario forecasts for your strategic planning.