The 4 Steps to the Future process includes a model for developing scenario forecasts that focuses on four different types of scenarios. These scenarios are framed around different patterns of continuity and change, and they are labeled A through D. The A-type scenario is the “continuity” scenario, meaning that the world it features at the end of the scenario basically resembles the present. Far from being a boring scenario, the A-scenario has a great deal of value for l

4 Steps to the Future is a framework for developing foresight created by Dr. Richard Kaipo Lum, an academically trained futurist (and VFS’s founder). The 4 Steps distills decades of training and experience into an easy-to-follow process for asking the fundamental questions important for effective foresight.

All leaders make decisions under uncertainty. Markets shift, technologies mature, and policies can change in ways that are hard to anticipate. Especially today. Traditional planning tools struggle with this level of volatility. Scenarios solve that problem.

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