Not Challenging Enough
There are a number of very serious, long-run transitions underway that are reshaping our world in fundamental ways. Climate change is altering weather and shorelines. Geopolitics and geoeconomics are undergoing their most profound shift in 30 years. We are developing ecosystems of machines within just about every nook and cranny to automate, streamline, and accomplish things without us. We are building the foundations for an era of space exploration and economies, extending our civilization beyond the planet. And we are mastering genetic powers that allow us to recode life itself. All of these are evolving faster than most realize, and faster than many would like.
Despite the myriad discussions across the world about these and other deeply disruptive transformations, most of the long-term scenarios I come across don't seem nearly challenging enough. Most of those futures look shockingly like today. Our world in 2022 is quite different in important ways from that of 2019, to say nothing of 2012. If these global transitions continue, interacting and amplifying one another as they already are, shouldn't a discussion about the future 15 years from now feature some very challenging changes? Do the forecasts you listen to today feature qualitatively different and challenging futures? Does everyone else feel like the futures-thinking going on around them is really getting at just how different our strategic futures will be?
In the off chance you're not fully confident in the scenarios you've been using, then let's talk about how we can help you develop what your organization needs.