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10 Things Your 10-Year Scenarios Need #2: Geopolitical Shifts

So, you and your team are working on some of the different ways the future could turn out in ten years’ time. Geopolitics, far from being only the concern of national policy makers, can and does dramatically affect all of us, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is painfully reminding us. Today, we are in a transition from a US-led world order defined by Western norms and the assumption of free-flowing information and trade across the world to something that may well come to be defined by fragmentation and competing spheres or blocs. As this shift occurs, there will be major changes to the global flow of information, energy, and goods. National economies will be reshaped by these global economic realignments. The shifting balance of geopolitical power may well lead to new conflicts, shocks, and uncertainties, all of which will drive abrupt changes in policy and strategy. The possibility of competing technical standards and new dominant innovation centers. Any discussion about the next ten years, whether for business or community, needs to account for how our economies and policies may change as the world powers realign themselves.

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