The Value of Continuity Scenarios

The 4 Steps to the Future process includes a model for developing scenario forecasts that focuses on four different types of scenarios.  These scenarios are framed around different patterns of continuity and change, and they are labeled A through D. 

The A-type scenario is the “continuity” scenario, meaning that the world it features at the end of the scenario basically resembles the present.  Far from being a boring scenario, the A-scenario has a great deal of value for leadership teams.

People new to the 4 Steps model often mistake working on the A-scenario for an easy job: simply state “nothing changes,” and move on.  As many workshop participants discover, however, the A-scenario can be the most challenging to do well.

Why?  Because after spending hours researching and discussing a laundry list of important trends and emerging issues, the A-scenario developers need to map out logical and compelling pathways that prevent or inhibit meaningful change.

When teams accomplish this challenging task, the value of continuity scenarios comes from at least two distinct benefits:

1. It forces teams to examine the forces that could inhibit desired change efforts down the road.

2. It counters the tendency of teams to overestimate the rate of deep, structural change in the world (i.e. counteracts “hype” thinking).

The first benefit becomes particularly valuable once teams shift into their strategy development process.  Comprehensively anticipating how systems and stakeholders are likely to respond to and counter strategy efforts is critical to developing effective strategy.

The second benefit helps to curb over enthusiasm for new emerging technologies as well as to balance out any heightened anxieties about negative trends or emerging issues.  Here, the A-scenarios help to remind everyone that, quite often, even developments with very large potential disruption get slowed, absorbed, or deflected.

Because of these benefits, A-scenarios are an important component in the 4 Steps model that helps leadership teams map more of the emerging landscape of the future.

As always, reach out to us today to discuss how your team can run through the 4 Steps process.